South Kingstown Public Schools
Enrollment Projections Report
December, 2004
Presented to the
Prepared by Robert Hicks, Superintendent
Below are the current years’ enrollment projections and recent history received from NESDEC. The district belongs to NESDEC and receives the projections as a benefit of membership. It should be noted that these are projections, not predictions. Projections take recent trends and extend them into the future. Current enrollments are projected with an adjustment determined by past history. In a simplified example, if, in past years, 250 first graders became 255 second graders the next year (a 2% growth), than such will be used to project the enrollment of future second grades.
To gauge how consistent past projections have been, I combined four years of projections for the 2005-2006 year to see what occurred (see graph below). In the elementary grades, projections have reduced over the period, in the middle grades they have been very consistent, and there has also been some decline in the secondary projections. The decline in elementary projections is likely a reflection of charter enrollments, and, since those students return in late elementary grades, there is no impact in 5-8. The 9-12 drop took place early in the count and stabilized in the most recent years due to a drop in private school enrollments (see below) and changes in out of district placements.
In short, our projections show a continuation of the enrollment decline that has occurred since the peak year of 1999. The enrollment decline may be explained as a result of a number of factors, some of them interrelated.
1. Births are declining – community births peaked at 287 in 1990 (the 95-96 kindergarten class) and have since dropped to approximately 250, a 13% drop.
2. There is a generalized decline in school age children in areas not facing immigration, such as is seen in Providence (from other nations) and in the southern and western areas of the US (from the northeast US).
3. In spite of the housing construction in town, empty nesters are hanging onto their homes to the extent that new construction does not overcome housing that no longer sends children to school.
4. Parents have increased options for education, as parochial schools expanded and charter schools opened.
Right now, we face the greatest decline in elementary enrollments, but that will move through the system. The decline will move into the middle grades over the next five years and cause us to face significant decisions about how our middle schools are organized. Middle schools create the dilemmas because they operate in the largest unit of pupils (teams) increasing the magnitude of adjustments. The High School will see the least impact over the next four years, as their enrollment peaks this year. The graphs below show the projections for the next four years in both grade combinations and for each grade. Between 01-02 and 06-07 elementary enrollment will drop 20% (1856 to 1477). In the same period, middle grade enrollment will drop 13% (1094 to 951) while the high school will drop 2% (1333 to 1309). Comparatively, between this year (04-05) and 09-10, also a five year period, K-5 will drop 14% (1622 to 1399), middle grades 22% (1036 to 807) and the high school 12% (1332-1177). In terms of pace of change, the rate of enrollment decline almost exactly matches the rate of increase. In six years we grew from 3810 (94-95) to the peak enrollment of 4383 (00-01). Six years after the peak (06-07) our enrollment is projected to be 3823.
Also this year we see the first drop in non-public enrollments in reported data. 2003-04 showed a peak enrollment of 570 with a drop to 530 reported in 04-05. (It should be noted that private-parochial enrollments are typically one year behind.) This could result from a number of factors, including saturation and movement from non-public schools to charter schools (which are free alternatives).
These enrollment projections impact our budget discussion. As we look to be more efficient, capturing savings from the enrollment drop, our organizational pattern must be considered. We are currently organized for a school system of over 4000 students, and this year looks to be the last in which our pupil count exceeds that figure. Some possible considerations for the committee and the community as a whole to consider include:
In the short term, what weight will we give to savings as opposed to maintaining our current structure and policies? One immediate example: This year we have 320 sixth graders, 170 at CCMS in 7 sections and 150 at BRMS in 6 sections. Next year, we will again have 320 sixth graders, however divided evenly with 160 at each middle school. Those enrollments will max out BRMS and under enroll CCMS. Our choices are to: (a) add a teacher to BRMS equalizing the loads, even though there are no overall new students; (b) max out BRMS, transfer overages to CCMS, and create an inequity in class sizes; or (c) transfer 10 students from BRMS to CCMS to recreate this year’s loads, moving students from their home school.
In the long term, how will we organize our school
system to house the smaller number of students? This will require an extensive public
conversation and analysis of options. It
will need to examine both elementary and middle school possibilities and
position the district for future populations.
It will need to weight the competing values of the community to create a
balanced response.